BigMoneyIQ
Where big money (asset managers like pension and mutual funds, and hedge funds) is positioned in futures, ranked against every week since 2018. From the CFTC's weekly report.
How one-sided is big money right now?
Each bar compares this week's net position (longs minus shorts) with every week since 2018. The far right is the most long this group has been, and the far left is the most short. The ring shows where they were 4 weeks ago.
1 wk and 4 wks = points moved on the 0–100 scale. ▲ toward long, ▼ toward short.
Managed money only. The CFTC reports oil and gold in a separate commodity report that has no asset-manager group, so this shows its “managed money” group, mostly hedge funds.
Managed money only. The CFTC reports oil and gold in a separate commodity report that has no asset-manager group, so this shows its “managed money” group, mostly hedge funds.
Arrows show how far they moved on that 0–100 scale. ▲ means they moved toward long, and ▼ means toward short. Orange and cyan mark the top and bottom 10% of weeks.
At an extreme this week
- 10-year Treasury note asset managers: most long since 2018
- 10-year Treasury note hedge funds: unusually short
- WTI crude oil hedge funds: less long than usual
When most of a group sits on one side, a surprise can push many of them to exit at once, and those exits can move prices fast. Extremes can also last for months.
What's shifting?
These are the biggest moves on the same 0–100 scale. You can switch between the last week and the last 4 weeks.
- Nasdaq-100Hedge funds+53 toward long · +31,633 contracts
- US dollarHedge funds+33 toward long · +7,678 contracts
- BitcoinHedge funds+20 toward long · +3,011 contracts
- WTI crude oilHedge funds-18 toward short · −65,641 contracts
- GoldHedge funds-14 toward short · −23,183 contracts
- S&P 500Asset managers-10 toward short · −33,078 contracts
- 10-year Treasury noteHedge funds-10 toward short · −180,277 contracts
- Nasdaq-100Asset managers+6 toward long · +5,570 contracts
- 10-year Treasury noteAsset managers+3 toward long · +394,032 contracts
- US dollarAsset managers+2 toward long · +248 contracts
- S&P 500Hedge funds+1 toward long · +4,329 contracts
- BitcoinAsset managers0 no change · −172 contracts
Each market in detail
Net contracts are longs minus shorts. Share of market is that net as a share of all open contracts. Tap a chart to see the full history.
How to read each market without the common traps: who sits on each side, what past extremes looked like, and what this week's numbers connect to. Free with your email.
How to read this data
- It's a few days old. Positions are as of Tuesday and usually come out Friday at 3:30 PM ET. Holidays can shift that.
- Nobody reports why. The CFTC doesn't know why anyone holds a position. Each trader's group comes from its main business, and every position counts, hedge or bet.
- Big jumps can come from the list changing. Totals move when a trader switches category, a new trader starts reporting, or one leaves. So a big 1- or 4-week move can be a change in who's reporting.
- Close to flat means small numbers. When a group's net is under 1% of all open contracts, a small trade moves its 0–100 rank a lot.
- “Since 2018” is our window. Records here start Jan 2, 2018 (Bitcoin: Apr 10, 2018). Older history is outside the ranking.
- The groups. Asset managers: pension funds, endowments, insurers and mutual funds. Hedge funds (CFTC “leveraged funds”): hedge funds, CTAs and commodity pools. Oil and gold come from a separate report with no asset-manager group, so we show its “managed money” group, mostly hedge funds and CTAs.
CFTC: Commitments of Traders · CFTC: TFF explanatory notes · CFTC: Disaggregated explanatory notes
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S&P 500
Asset managersNormal range
- Net contracts
- +901,377
- 1 week
- −14,458
- 4 weeks
- −33,078
- Share of market
- +46.6%
Hedge fundsNormal range
- Net contracts
- −371,245
- 1 week
- +37,481
- 4 weeks
- +4,329
- Share of market
- −19.2%
This week
As of Oct 20, 2026: Asset managers: normal range, net long 901,377 contracts. Moved ▼ 6 pts in 1 week and ▼ 10 pts in 4 weeks. Hedge funds: normal range, net short 371,245 contracts. Moved ▲ 7 pts in 1 week and ▲ 1 pt in 4 weeks.
Who's on each side
- Asset managers are usually big net long. Funds hold index futures on the cash they keep for inflows and redemptions, so the whole fund tracks the index. CME calls this “cash equitization.”
- Hedge funds' net position can sit on either side. The report doesn't show why.
Common misreads
- A big asset-manager long is mostly index-fund cash at work. Reading it as a fresh bet overstates it.
- Futures are only part of the picture. The report shows futures only. Stocks and other holdings these funds own aren't in it.
CME Group: Cash equitization (2018) · CFTC: Commitments of Traders
Past extremes
- Asset managers since 2018: largest net long 1,124,081 contracts on Feb 18, 2020; smallest net long 180,188 contracts on Oct 11, 2022.
- Hedge funds since 2018: largest net long 149,057 contracts on Dec 24, 2018; deepest net short 598,669 contracts on Aug 16, 2022.
What to watch
- Whether the asset-manager and hedge-fund lines move apart or together over several weeks.
Notes on this market
- Leveraged-fund positions in stock index futures include hedges and arbitrage legs, so a net short is often only part of a fund's overall exposure.
Nasdaq-100
Asset managersNormal range
- Net contracts
- +77,790
- 1 week
- +2,467
- 4 weeks
- +5,570
- Share of market
- +28.6%
Hedge fundsClose to flat
- Net contracts
- +950
- 1 week
- +12,543
- 4 weeks
- +31,633
- Share of market
- +0.3%
This week
As of Oct 20, 2026: Asset managers: normal range, net long 77,790 contracts. Moved ▲ 3 pts in 1 week and ▲ 6 pts in 4 weeks. Hedge funds: close to flat, net long 950 contracts. Moved ▲ 18 pts in 1 week and ▲ 53 pts in 4 weeks.
→ Why a near-flat position swings in rank→ What a big 4-week move can mean
Who's on each side
- The same groups as the S&P 500, for the same reasons. Asset managers use index futures to keep fund cash invested.
Common misreads
- A big asset-manager long is mostly index-fund cash at work. Reading it as a fresh bet overstates it.
- Hedge funds' net is often small here. When it's near zero, its rank can swing a lot on small trades.
- One contract. This is the E-mini Nasdaq-100 only. Micro contracts are counted separately.
Past extremes
- Asset managers since 2018: largest net long 99,783 contracts on Feb 13, 2024; deepest net short 30,998 contracts on Dec 11, 2018.
- Hedge funds since 2018: largest net long 22,502 contracts on Dec 24, 2018; deepest net short 89,125 contracts on Aug 11, 2026.
What to watch
- Whether hedge funds stay near flat or rebuild a short.
Notes on this market
- Leveraged-fund positions in stock index futures include hedges and arbitrage legs, so a net short is often only part of a fund's overall exposure.
- Covers the E-mini Nasdaq-100 contract only; Micro E-mini contracts are excluded.
10-year Treasury note
Asset managersMost long since 2018
- Net contracts
- +2,925,416
- 1 week
- +26,854
- 4 weeks
- +394,032
- Share of market
- +49.9%
Hedge fundsUnusually short
- Net contracts
- −2,107,224
- 1 week
- +98,713
- 4 weeks
- −180,277
- Share of market
- −35.9%
This week
As of Oct 20, 2026: Asset managers: most long since 2018, net long 2,925,416 contracts. No change in 1 week and moved ▲ 3 pts in 4 weeks. Hedge funds: unusually short, net short 2,107,224 contracts. Moved ▲ 2 pts in 1 week and ▼ 10 pts in 4 weeks.
Who's on each side
- Asset managers are long futures. Hedge funds are short.
- Much of it is one trade, the cash-futures basis trade: a hedge fund holds the bond, shorts the matching future and borrows in the repo market to pay for the bond.
Common misreads
- “Asset managers risk-off, hedge funds risk-on” gets it wrong. The two sides are largely the two halves of the basis trade.
- The hedge-fund short overstates the trade. The Fed says futures positions alone “likely overestimate basis trade volume.” It put the trade at $260–574 billion at end-September 2023.
- One contract. 2-year, 5-year, Ultra and bond futures are separate.
Federal Reserve: FEDS Note, Aug 30, 2023 · Federal Reserve: FEDS Note, Mar 8, 2024
Past extremes
- Asset managers since 2018: largest net long 2,925,416 contracts on Oct 20, 2026; deepest net short 102,909 contracts on Oct 12, 2021.
- Hedge funds since 2018: largest net long 607,705 contracts on Oct 12, 2021; deepest net short 2,534,616 contracts on Aug 26, 2025.
- March 2020. Hedge funds' gross Treasury exposure doubled from 2018 to February 2020, to $2.4 trillion. In March 2020 the average Treasury hedge fund lost 7% and cut exposure by about 20%. Basis-trade funds faced the most margin pressure and cut the most. The Fed says the unwind “likely contributed to the March 2020 Treasury market instability.”
- 2023 rebuild. Hedge-fund shorts in 2-, 5- and 10-year futures rose $411 billion from Oct 4, 2022 to May 9, 2023, to nearly $715 billion. The prior high was $750 billion in July 2019.
Federal Reserve: FEDS 2021-038, June 2021 · Federal Reserve: FEDS Note, Aug 30, 2023 · CFTC Commitments of Traders data
What to watch
- The size of both sides together, which tracks how big the borrowed-money basis trade is.
Notes on this market
- Hedge fund shorts in Treasury futures mostly come from the basis trade, a funding trade that pairs short futures with long cash bonds. They are rarely a bet on higher yields.
- Covers the 10-year note contract only; the Ultra 10-year (code 043607) is reported separately and excluded.
US dollar
Asset managersNormal range
- Net contracts
- +17,020
- 1 week
- −1,144
- 4 weeks
- +248
- Share of market
- +34.5%
Hedge fundsNormal range
- Net contracts
- +3,183
- 1 week
- +1,107
- 4 weeks
- +7,678
- Share of market
- +6.4%
This week
As of Oct 20, 2026: Asset managers: normal range, net long 17,020 contracts. Moved ▼ 6 pts in 1 week and ▲ 2 pts in 4 weeks. Hedge funds: normal range, net long 3,183 contracts. Moved ▲ 5 pts in 1 week and ▲ 33 pts in 4 weeks.
Who's on each side
- Asset managers and hedge funds both trade it, in small size.
Common misreads
- This is a small slice of currency trading. Global FX trading averaged $9.6 trillion a day in April 2025. This one futures contract is a small piece of that.
Past extremes
- Asset managers since 2018: largest net long 30,966 contracts on Jul 12, 2022; deepest net short 11,063 contracts on Jul 15, 2025.
- Hedge funds since 2018: largest net long 26,733 contracts on Sep 10, 2024; deepest net short 24,785 contracts on Nov 25, 2025.
What to watch
- Large 4-week moves, which show a group changing sides in this contract.
Notes on this market
- A small contract next to the currency market as a whole; most dollar positioning happens in currency forwards and other futures.
WTI crude oil
Managed money only. The CFTC reports oil and gold in a separate commodity report that has no asset-manager group, so this shows its “managed money” group, mostly hedge funds.
Hedge fundsLess long than usual
- Net contracts
- +36,187
- 1 week
- −4,387
- 4 weeks
- −65,641
- Share of market
- +2.0%
This week
As of Oct 20, 2026: Hedge funds (managed money): less long than usual, net long 36,187 contracts. No change in 1 week and moved ▼ 18 pts in 4 weeks.
Who's on each side
- Producers, refiners and merchants hedge physical oil. Swap dealers hedge swaps sold to clients. Managed money is mostly hedge funds and CTAs.
Common misreads
- This shows managed money only. Producers and swap dealers are in the report too, with larger positions.
- One contract. ICE WTI and other crude contracts are separate.
Past extremes
- Hedge funds (managed money) since 2018: largest net long 483,829 contracts on Jan 16, 2018; deepest net short 38,154 contracts on Oct 21, 2025.
- April 20, 2020. The May 2020 NYMEX WTI contract settled at −$37.63 a barrel, the first negative price in 37 years, as demand collapsed and storage at Cushing filled up.
CFTC staff report on WTI, Nov 23, 2020 · CFTC Commitments of Traders data
What to watch
- Whether managed money stays this light or adds length over the coming weeks.
Notes on this market
- Covers NYMEX WTI-Physical only; ICE WTI (code 067411) and other crude contracts are excluded. Producers and swap dealers hold much larger positions.
Gold
Managed money only. The CFTC reports oil and gold in a separate commodity report that has no asset-manager group, so this shows its “managed money” group, mostly hedge funds.
Hedge fundsNormal range
- Net contracts
- +104,206
- 1 week
- −2,883
- 4 weeks
- −23,183
- Share of market
- +25.9%
This week
As of Oct 20, 2026: Hedge funds (managed money): normal range, net long 104,206 contracts. Moved ▼ 2 pts in 1 week and ▼ 14 pts in 4 weeks.
Who's on each side
- The report has three groups here: producers and merchants, swap dealers and managed money (mostly hedge funds and CTAs).
Common misreads
- This shows managed money only. Gold ETFs, central banks and the London market are outside this report.
Past extremes
- Hedge funds (managed money) since 2018: largest net long 238,546 contracts on Feb 18, 2020; deepest net short 109,454 contracts on Oct 9, 2018.
What to watch
- Big 4-week swings in managed money, shown on the “What's shifting?” chart.
Notes on this market
- Covers COMEX gold futures only; gold ETFs, central banks and the London market sit outside this report.
Bitcoin small market
Asset managersNormal range
- Net contracts
- +2,999
- 1 week
- −643
- 4 weeks
- −172
- Share of market
- +14.3%
Hedge fundsNormal range
- Net contracts
- −4,942
- 1 week
- +902
- 4 weeks
- +3,011
- Share of market
- −23.5%
This week
As of Oct 20, 2026: Asset managers: normal range, net long 2,999 contracts. Moved ▼ 1 pt in 1 week and no change in 4 weeks. Hedge funds: normal range, net short 4,942 contracts. Moved ▲ 11 pts in 1 week and ▲ 20 pts in 4 weeks.
Who's on each side
- Since 2024, hedge funds have mostly been net short. After US spot Bitcoin ETFs launched in January 2024, their net short in CME futures grew. CME says this “implies the growing use of basis trades, where futures are sold short to hedge long exposure in spot markets, rather than a directional view.”
- Asset managers' position is smaller.
Common misreads
- The hedge-fund short is mostly a hedge. It's largely the short leg against long spot or ETF holdings.
- The futures premium matters. The gap between futures and spot prices, the “carry,” is what the basis trade earns. Researchers at the BIS study it in detail.
CME Group: Spot ETFs and crypto basis trading, Nov 2025 · BIS Working Paper 1087: Crypto carry
Past extremes
- Asset managers since 2018: largest net long 19,802 contracts on Jul 23, 2024; deepest net short 729 contracts on May 18, 2021.
- Hedge funds since 2018: largest net long 494 contracts on Jan 15, 2019; deepest net short 23,197 contracts on Dec 17, 2024.
- CME Bitcoin open interest rose from about 30,000 contracts in early 2024 to 45,000 in November 2024.
CME Group: Spot ETFs and crypto basis trading, Nov 2025 · CFTC Commitments of Traders data
What to watch
- Whether the hedge-fund short shrinks or grows alongside ETF holdings.
Notes on this market
- CME Bitcoin futures are a small slice of the Bitcoin market. Hedge fund shorts here are largely the short leg of cash-futures basis trades (long spot or ETFs, short futures).
- Data start Apr 10, 2018, when the CFTC began reporting this contract in the TFF report.
Data as of Tuesday, released Friday.
Educational information from official sources, not financial advice. Shows how one-sided big money is versus history. It tells you how crowded a trade is, and doesn't say when that changes.
What stands out this week
Nasdaq-100: hedge funds are close to flat, at the long end of their range
As of Oct 20, 2026, hedge funds are net long 950 Nasdaq-100 contracts. That ranks at or above 94% of the 460 weeks since Jan 2, 2018. Highest since Nov 25, 2025.
10-year Treasury: asset managers hold their biggest net long since 2018
As of Oct 20, 2026, asset managers are net long 2,925,416 10-year note contracts, the largest of all 460 weeks since Jan 2, 2018. Hedge funds are net short 2,107,224, a bigger short than in 92% of those weeks.
WTI crude: hedge funds hold one of their smallest net longs since 2018
As of Oct 20, 2026, hedge funds and other speculators are net long 36,187 WTI contracts (163,413 long, 127,226 short). That is smaller than in 95% of weeks since Jan 2, 2018. Lowest since Jan 6, 2026.
The net position is under 1% of open interest, so a small change in contracts moves this ranking a lot.
Hedge-fund positions in stock index futures include hedges and arbitrage legs, so this number is often only part of a fund's overall exposure.
These two numbers are mostly one trade seen from both sides. Asset managers often hold Treasury futures instead of the bonds, because futures tie up less cash. Hedge funds take the other side. They hold the bonds, short the futures, and borrow short-term in the repo market to pay for the bonds, earning the small price gap. This is called the cash-futures basis trade.
So a record asset-manager long next to a deep hedge-fund short mostly shows how big that borrowed-money trade has gotten. Federal Reserve research found that in March 2020, as funding got harder to find, hedge funds unwinding Treasury positions added to that month's stress in the Treasury market.
This covers the 10-year note contract only. The Ultra 10-year and other Treasury contracts are reported separately.
Right now, few speculators hold oil exposure through this contract.
Producers, refiners and swap dealers hold far larger positions than speculators do, and this covers NYMEX WTI-Physical only. ICE WTI and other crude contracts are reported separately.
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Who is “big money” here?
- Asset managers (CFTC: Asset Manager/Institutional): pension funds, insurers, mutual funds and other institutions. Shown for stocks, Treasuries, the dollar and Bitcoin.
- Hedge funds (CFTC: leveraged funds): hedge funds, CTAs and other money managers trading with leverage. Shown for the same markets.
- Hedge funds in oil and gold (CFTC: managed money): hedge funds, CTAs and commodity pools. The CFTC reports commodities in a different report with this group name.
- Traders pick their own category on CFTC Form 40, and CFTC staff review it.
FAQ
What is the COT report?
The Commitments of Traders (COT) report is a weekly CFTC report breaking down Tuesday's open interest in U.S. futures and options markets where 20 or more traders hold positions at or above CFTC reporting levels.
When is the COT report released?
Usually Friday at 3:30 p.m. Eastern, with data as of the previous Tuesday. Federal holidays can push it back a day or two; the CFTC release schedule lists the exact dates.
Who are "managed money" and "leveraged funds"?
In the Disaggregated report (commodities), managed money is mostly hedge funds and CTAs. In the Traders in Financial Futures report (stocks, rates, currencies), the matching group is leveraged funds. The older Legacy report groups speculators together as "non-commercial". Traders choose their own category on CFTC Form 40, and CFTC staff review it.
How does the long-to-short bar work?
We rank this week's net position (longs minus shorts) against every weekly reading since 2018 on a 0 to 100 scale. 95 means this week is at or above 95% of those weeks. The top and bottom 10% are marked as unusual. It shows how crowded a position is and says nothing about where prices go next.
Is a crowded trade a signal to buy or sell?
No. Positioning can stay at extremes for months, and some positions are hedges or basis trades. RogueIQ reports positioning and doesn't make recommendations.
How current is the data?
It is three days old when published (Tuesday's data, released Friday) and about ten days old by the next release. The latest report on this page is as of Oct 20, 2026, released Oct 23, 2026. The CFTC doesn't know why traders hold their positions.
Can I use this data?
Yes. CFTC data is public domain, and the CFTC asks for credit. Cite "Source: CFTC Commitments of Traders" and RogueIQ for the percentile calculation.
Sources and method
- Window: Expanding window from 2018-01-02 (Bitcoin from 2018-04-10) through the latest report, inclusive.
- Net: Net position = the group's long contracts minus its short contracts. Spreading positions are excluded.
- Near zero: near_zero_net = true when |net| is under 1% of open interest; percentile_note then warns the percentile can swing on small changes.
- Since note: since_note says Highest/Lowest since a date only when that date is 4+ weeks back; otherwise it gives the week-on-week direction.
- Percentile: Percentile = share of weekly net positions in the window that are less than or equal to this week's, times 100. Shown as 100 when this week is the highest and 0 when it is the lowest.
- Reports: Futures-only reports. Financial contracts: CFTC Traders in Financial Futures (Asset Manager/Institutional and Leveraged Funds). WTI and gold: CFTC Disaggregated (Managed Money).
- Contracts: One contract per market, keyed by CFTC contract market code so 2022 name changes don't break history: E-mini S&P 500 13874A, Nasdaq mini 209742, 10-year note 043602, USD Index (ICE) 098662, WTI-Physical (NYMEX) 067651, Gold (COMEX) 088691, Bitcoin (CME) 133741.
- Shifts: change_wow / change_4w = change in net contracts over 1 and 4 weeks. rank_change_1w / rank_change_4w = this week's percentile minus the percentile the week 1 or 4 weeks back would have against the same history (points on the 0-100 scale). plain_label turns the percentile into words: top or bottom 10% = Unusually long/short, the single highest or lowest week = Most long/short since 2018, under 1% of open interest = Close to flat.
- Dates: report_date is the Tuesday the positions are as of. release_date is the CFTC's standard Friday release for that week; federal holidays can delay it.
- Updates: Checked every Friday from 3:35 PM ET, hourly until 7:35 PM ET, then Saturday, Sunday and Monday mornings until the new week appears. The last 8 weeks are re-read each time to pick up CFTC revisions.
- Sources: CFTC Commitments of Traders · Financial futures report · Petroleum report · Metals and other report · CFTC Public Reporting API · Release schedule
For agents and citations
Source: CFTC Commitments of Traders (public domain). Percentiles calculated by RogueIQ. Data as of Oct 20, 2026, released Oct 23, 2026. https://rogueiq.com/bigmoneyiq/
JSON API (GET /bigmoneyiq/api/v1/crowded-trades[/{market}], markets: sp500, nasdaq, ust10y, usd, wti, gold, btc) · MCP tool get_crowded_trades on https://rogueiq.com/econiq/mcp · Agent setup
{"as_of":"2026-10-20","release_date":"2026-10-23","source":"CFTC Commitments of Traders","api":"https://rogueiq.com/bigmoneyiq/api/v1/crowded-trades","mcp_tool":"get_crowded_trades on https://rogueiq.com/econiq/mcp","disclaimer":"Educational information from official sources, not financial advice."}Data as of Oct 20, 2026 (CFTC, released Oct 23). New data every Friday.