MacroIQ: today's rates, inflation and dollar picture

What is MacroIQ?

MacroIQ puts the core U.S. macro numbers on one screen, all from official sources and all from the same market close. Those numbers are Treasury yields from 3 months to 30 years, the yield-curve gaps, the inflation-protected yield, expected inflation, the Fed's policy rates, the dollar and oil. Experienced readers can scan it in seconds. Newer investors can see how each number connects to the others, with a short plain-English read of what changed this week. Every value links to its source and is free as JSON, CSV or through MCP for AI agents.

FAQ

What do MacroIQ Stress and MacroIQ Tightening measure?

They are two 0-100 readings from RogueIQ. MacroIQ Stress measures stress in markets and short-term funding: how volatile stocks are, how far they sit below their high and what weaker companies pay to borrow for a few weeks. It is not a sentiment gauge. MacroIQ Tightening measures how restrictive conditions are from policy rates, Treasury yields, the yield curve, the dollar, oil and inflation. Each has five levels, from Calm to Crisis-level and from Loose to Very tight. They describe today's conditions and do not predict markets.

Why are MacroIQ Stress and MacroIQ Tightening labeled beta?

Their method was frozen on a set date and every daily reading since then is recorded and never revised, so anyone can check how they behave over time. While that live record is short they stay labeled beta. Any future change to the method gets a new version number and its own date, and the old record stays as it was.

What is the 10-year Treasury yield and why does it matter?

It's the interest rate the U.S. government pays to borrow for 10 years. Lenders use it as a base for mortgages, company bonds and other long-term loans, so when it rises, borrowing across the economy tends to get more expensive. It reflects investors' views on growth, inflation and Fed policy over the next decade.

What does the 2-year Treasury yield tell you?

The 2-year moves closely with where investors think the Fed's interest rate is heading over the next two years. If it sits well below the Fed's current rate, markets are commonly read as pricing in rate cuts; well above, rate hikes.

What is the 10-year minus 2-year yield gap?

It's the 10-year yield minus the 2-year yield, in basis points (100 basis points = 1 percentage point). Normally long-term borrowing costs more, so the gap is positive. When it turns negative, the curve is called “inverted”. Inversions have come before most U.S. recessions since the 1960s, often with long and varying lags, and they have also given false alarms. Traders often shorten it to “2s10s”, where “s” stands for years.

Why also show the 10-year minus 3-month gap?

It's another way to measure the slope of the yield curve, and it's the one the Federal Reserve Bank of New York uses in its published recession-probability model. The two gaps usually point the same way. When they disagree, it's a sign the very short end of the curve, which is tied most closely to the Fed, is behaving differently.

What's the difference between the inflation-protected yield and expected inflation?

The inflation-protected (real) yield comes from TIPS bonds, which adjust for inflation, so it shows the return after inflation. The regular 10-year yield minus the real yield gives the inflation rate that bond prices imply, often called the breakeven rate. Looking at both tells you whether a move in the 10-year is about growth and Fed policy (real yield) or about inflation (breakeven).

What is the Fed funds rate, and how is SOFR different?

The Fed funds rate is the overnight rate banks charge each other for unsecured loans. The Federal Reserve sets a target range for it, and that range is the main dial of U.S. monetary policy. SOFR is the overnight cost of borrowing cash with Treasury bonds as collateral, and it's the benchmark behind many loans and derivatives. Both are published by the New York Fed each morning for the prior business day.

What does the broad dollar index measure?

The Federal Reserve's broad dollar index tracks the dollar against 26 currencies, weighted by how much the U.S. trades with each. A higher number means a stronger dollar. It's a different index from the DXY, which covers only six currencies and is licensed by ICE.

Why does the oil price matter for the economy?

Oil feeds into fuel, shipping and production costs, so big moves show up in inflation and in consumer spending. Brent is the global benchmark price. WTI is the main U.S. benchmark. Both are daily spot prices from the U.S. Energy Information Administration, published the next business day, so they carry their own date on this page.

Why doesn't MacroIQ show S&P 500 or VIX numbers?

The S&P 500 and the VIX are licensed by their owners, S&P Dow Jones Indices and Cboe, so MacroIQ does not republish their values. The page shows a delayed TradingView chart for them instead, and the API points AI agents to the official pages so they can fetch the data directly under the owner's terms.

How do these indicators usually move together?

Some common links: the 2-year follows the Fed's rate path; the 10-year blends growth, inflation and Fed views; the gap between them shows which of those dominates. When oil rises, expected inflation often rises with it. A rising real yield tends to tighten financial conditions and often goes with a firmer dollar. These links hold often, not always, which is why seeing them side by side is useful.

Where does MacroIQ get its data, and how often does it update?

Directly from the U.S. Treasury (daily yield curves, published each trading-day evening), the Federal Reserve Bank of New York (Fed funds and SOFR, each morning), the Federal Reserve Board's H.10 release (dollar index, weekly) and the U.S. Energy Information Administration (Brent and WTI daily spot prices, published the next business day). The page refreshes several times each evening after Treasury publishes, and every value shows its date and a link to its source.

Can AI agents use this data?

Yes. The same snapshot is free as JSON and CSV, with an OpenAPI description, and through RogueIQ's MCP server. Every value carries its date, units and source link. The S&P 500 and VIX are listed as not included (licensed), with links to the official sources.

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CSV of this snapshot · JSON API · OpenAPI · Use it in your AI agent (MCP) · How our data works

RogueIQ MacroIQ, “10-year Treasury yield 4.99% at the Oct 27, 2026 close (U.S. Treasury)”, https://rogueiq.com/macroiq/.