Crowded Trades

Where big money is all-in, and where it's empty. Updated every Friday.

Crowded Trades shows how heavily hedge funds and other speculators are positioned in six major futures markets, using the CFTC's weekly Commitments of Traders report. Each reading is ranked as a percentile of every week since 2018. Data as of Tuesday, Oct 20, 2026, published by the CFTC on Friday, Oct 23, 2026.

• Hedge funds (leveraged funds) are net short S&P 500: 371,245 contracts, the 22nd percentile since 2018; asset managers are net long 901,377, the 69th percentile (TFF, as of Oct 20, 2026).
• Hedge funds (leveraged funds) are net long Nasdaq-100: 950 contracts, the 94th percentile since 2018; asset managers are net long 77,790, the 86th percentile (TFF, as of Oct 20, 2026).
• Hedge funds (leveraged funds) are net short 10-year Treasury note: 2,107,224 contracts, the 8th percentile since 2018; asset managers are net long 2,925,416, the 100th percentile (TFF, as of Oct 20, 2026).
• Hedge funds (leveraged funds) are net long US dollar (ICE Dollar Index futures): 3,183 contracts, the 66th percentile since 2018; asset managers are net long 17,020, the 70th percentile (TFF, as of Oct 20, 2026).
• Hedge funds (managed money) are net long WTI crude oil: 36,187 contracts, the 5th percentile since 2018 (Disaggregated, as of Oct 20, 2026).
• Hedge funds (managed money) are net long Gold: 104,206 contracts, the 53rd percentile since 2018 (Disaggregated, as of Oct 20, 2026).
• Hedge funds (leveraged funds) are net short Bitcoin (CME futures): 4,942 contracts, the 50th percentile since Apr 10, 2018; asset managers are net long 2,999, the 45th percentile (TFF, as of Oct 20, 2026).

General education, not investment advice. Positioning is a poor timing tool. Data: CFTC, as of the dates shown.

Updated with the CFTC report as of Oct 20, 2026 (released Oct 23, 2026). Last checked Oct 24, 2026, 12:07 AM ET.

This week's positioning at a glance (as of Oct 20, 2026)

Ember marks the top 10% of readings since 2018 and cyan the bottom 10%. The colours describe crowding only.

Market cards: who holds what

Why this week's extremes matter

What is the COT report? (explained in plain English)

Every Friday the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) publishes the Commitments of Traders report: how many futures contracts each type of trader held as of the previous Tuesday. It covers markets where 20 or more traders hold positions above the CFTC's reporting levels. It is free, public-domain data, and it is the main public record of who holds which side of the big futures markets.

How to read a positioning percentile

Each gauge ranks this week's net position (longs minus shorts) against every week since 2018. The 100th percentile means the largest net long in that history; the 0th means the smallest (or the largest net short). The top 10% is labelled “near the top of its range since 2018” and the bottom 10% “near the bottom”. Raw contract counts grow as markets grow, so each card also shows the net position as a share of open interest.

Who counts as “big money”? Managed money vs leveraged funds

• Hedge funds and other speculators (CFTC: managed money), in the Disaggregated report for commodities: hedge funds, CTAs and commodity pools. Used for WTI and gold.
• Hedge funds (CFTC: leveraged funds), in the Traders in Financial Futures report: hedge funds, CTAs and other money managers trading with leverage. This gauge answers each “Are hedge funds long…?” question on the financial cards.
• Asset managers (CFTC: Asset Manager/Institutional): pension funds, insurers, mutual funds and other institutions. Shown as the first gauge on the financial cards because they hold the largest positions in stock, Treasury and dollar futures.
• Traders pick their own category on CFTC Form 40, and CFTC staff review it.

Why a crowded trade isn't a signal

Positioning describes who is already in a trade. It can stay at an extreme for months, and many positions are hedges or arbitrage legs. The Treasury and Bitcoin futures shorts held by hedge funds are largely the short side of cash-futures basis trades. The data are three days old when published. Use the gauges as context for a headline or a strange move, alongside prices and fundamentals. RogueIQ doesn't make recommendations.

FAQ

What is the COT report?

The Commitments of Traders (COT) report is a weekly CFTC report breaking down Tuesday's open interest in U.S. futures and options markets where 20 or more traders hold positions at or above CFTC reporting levels.

When is the COT report released?

Usually Friday at 3:30 p.m. Eastern, with data as of the previous Tuesday. Federal holidays can push it back a day or two; the CFTC release schedule lists the exact dates.

Who are "managed money" and "leveraged funds"?

In the Disaggregated report (commodities), managed money is mostly hedge funds and CTAs. In the Traders in Financial Futures report (stocks, rates, currencies), the matching group is leveraged funds. The older Legacy report groups speculators together as "non-commercial". Traders choose their own category on CFTC Form 40, and CFTC staff review it.

What does the percentile mean?

It is where this week's net position (longs minus shorts) ranks among every weekly reading since 2018. 95 means this week's net position is at or above 95% of those weeks. It describes how crowded a position is and says nothing about where prices go next.

Is a crowded trade a signal to buy or sell?

No. Positioning can stay at extremes for months, and some positions are hedges or basis trades. RogueIQ reports positioning and doesn't make recommendations.

How current is the data?

It is three days old when published (Tuesday's data, released Friday) and about ten days old by the next release. The latest report on this page is as of Oct 20, 2026, released Oct 23, 2026. The CFTC doesn't know why traders hold their positions.

Can I use this data?

Yes. CFTC data is public domain, and the CFTC asks for credit. Cite "Source: CFTC Commitments of Traders" and RogueIQ for the percentile calculation.

Sources and method

• Window: Expanding window from 2018-01-02 (Bitcoin from 2018-04-10) through the latest report, inclusive.
• Net: Net position = the group's long contracts minus its short contracts. Spreading positions are excluded.
• Percentile: Percentile = share of weekly net positions in the window that are less than or equal to this week's, times 100. Shown as 100 when this week is the highest and 0 when it is the lowest.
• Reports: Futures-only reports. Financial contracts: CFTC Traders in Financial Futures (Asset Manager/Institutional and Leveraged Funds). WTI and gold: CFTC Disaggregated (Managed Money).
• Contracts: One contract per market, keyed by CFTC contract market code so 2022 name changes don't break history: E-mini S&P 500 13874A, Nasdaq mini 209742, 10-year note 043602, USD Index (ICE) 098662, WTI-Physical (NYMEX) 067651, Gold (COMEX) 088691, Bitcoin (CME) 133741.
• Dates: report_date is the Tuesday the positions are as of. release_date is the CFTC's standard Friday release for that week; federal holidays can delay it.
• Updates: Checked every Friday from 3:35 PM ET, hourly until 7:35 PM ET, then Saturday, Sunday and Monday mornings until the new week appears. The last 8 weeks are re-read each time to pick up CFTC revisions.
• Sources: CFTC Commitments of Traders · Financial futures report · Petroleum report · Metals and other report · CFTC Public Reporting API · Release schedule
• Not shown: index or futures price levels. The page shows positioning only.

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